CNN is out here doing the math on early voting in North Carolina and the numbers say registered Democrats are casting ballots at a higher rate than they did in 2022 or 2024 at the same point. Forty-two percent of the early ballots are coming from Democrats. Republicans are at 23 percent. The on-air talent treated this like the discovery of fire. 'Enthusiasm advantage!' they said, as if the people standing in line at the early vote site just got a raise and their rent dropped.
Here's the thing about enthusiasm in a midterm: it gets you to the polling place. It does not make the eggs cheaper or the electric bill smaller. Democrats have spent the last two years telling voters that the economy is fine if you ignore the parts that aren't and that any remaining inflation is a global phenomenon that definitely isn't related to the spending they passed. North Carolina voters who are showing up early might be motivated by abortion or by Trump or by the local school board fight. They are not showing up because they suddenly love the price of gas. The party that owns the White House and the Senate is banking on turnout from people who are still mad about 2022 while the people who are mad about 2026 are still deciding whether to bother.
Early vote numbers are fun for cable news because they look like a scoreboard. They are not a scoreboard. They are a snapshot of who had the day off or who already knew how they were voting. Republicans have spent the cycle telling their people to wait until Election Day so the ballot harvestors don't get a head start. Democrats have spent the cycle telling their people to bank the vote now because the other side is coming for democracy. Both sides are running their normal playbook. The difference is that one side's playbook includes 'the economy is actually great' and the other side's playbook includes 'look at your grocery receipt.'
If the early numbers hold and Democrats turn out their base while independents stay home or split, they will pick up seats. They will also have to explain, starting November 4, why the enthusiasm that got them there did not translate into a single policy that made the next mortgage payment easier. Statehouse Democrats in places like North Carolina will celebrate the turnout numbers on cable and then go back to the state capitol and try to pass another spending bill that requires the same voters to pay for it. The voters who showed up early will notice. Or they won't, and they'll show up early again in two years to complain about the results of the last election.
The Demorat will be watching the final early vote dump like everyone else. We'll also be watching the price of a dozen eggs the morning after. One of those numbers is a story. The other one is a receipt. Democrats keep confusing the two.
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