Democratic strategist Lis Smith says that if progressive Abdul El-Sayed wins in Michigan, it won't prove progressives can win anywhere else. The Contrarian Crow agrees, and would like to go further: it won't prove anything about Michigan either, if she has anything to say about it.
Here's what she actually said, to Politico's Dasha Burns on "The Conversation" podcast: "Michigan isn't everywhere. If you can win in Michigan, you can win in Michigan."
Read it slowly. It's beautiful. It's a tautology with a press pass. A man could carve it over the door of the Democratic National Committee and nobody inside would notice it says nothing.
The Crow has spent a long career taking the unpopular side, so let's take hers for a minute. She's right. Michigan isn't everywhere. Michigan is the state Democrats spent four years calling the "Blue Wall," the beating heart of the working class, the place where the party's soul lives. Now that the wrong Democrat might win there, it has been quietly downgraded to a regional curiosity. Like a corn maze.
This is the most honest a party consultant has been all cycle. The professional class doesn't fear Republicans. Republicans are just the weather. What it fears is its own voters picking someone it didn't pre-approve. A win by the party is a mandate. A win by the base is a fluke.
Watch the goalposts move in real time. If the moderate wins Michigan, it's a roadmap for the nation. If the progressive wins Michigan, it's just Michigan. If anyone wins Michigan by more than three points, expect a podcast explaining that Detroit was technically a sovereign weather pattern that night.
And Smith's line works for any outcome you want to explain away. If you can win in Ohio, you can win in Ohio. If you can win a bake sale, you can win a bake sale. If you can lose 2024, you can lose 2024. The Crow tried it on a parking ticket this morning. "If you can park here, you can park here." The officer did not accept it as policy analysis.
There's a version of this where the party actually learns something. A progressive running on his own terms wins a Midwest Senate race, and the consultants ask why. Maybe voters wanted someone who didn't sound focus-grouped. Maybe they just wanted someone who didn't have a strategist explaining in advance why their vote wouldn't count.
Instead, the plan is set. Win, and it's an asterisk. Lose, and it's proof. The only thing guaranteed to travel beyond state lines is the consultant's invoice.
So, Michigan, a word of advice from a bird who has seen a lot of polls. Vote however you like on Tuesday. Just know that the Democratic strategy class has already decided what it means, and it means you're Michigan.
If you can be Michigan, you can be Michigan.
The Demorat is a satire publication. This article is a comedy roast built on real reported events; jokes, exaggerations and fictional characters are not real news.
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